April 27, 2021

2020 Census Results

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The overall U.S. population stood at 331,449,281, the Census Bureau said on Monday, a 7.4% increase over 2010 representing the second-slowest growth of any decade in history… Texas will receive two more congressional seats next year, and five states - Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, Montana and Oregon - will gain one congressional seat each, the census bureau said. New York, California, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will each lose one seat. California, the most populous U.S. state, lost a congressional seat for the first time in its 170-year history. The reapportionment can come down to razor-thin margins. If New York had 89 more people in the census count, for instance, it would have kept its seat at the expense of Minnesota.” Reuters

Both sides see the changes as beneficial for Republicans:

“Going into the 2022 cycle, Republicans will get to draw far more districts than Democrats because they control the process in more states… And reapportionment between states has ramifications for the presidential contests in 2024 and 2028. Texas will now have 40 Electoral College votes and Florida 30, making them second and third behind California. That may force the Democratic ticket in 2024 to give a harder look at playing in Texas, where demographics are shifting the party's way. And it could force Democrats to think twice about competing in Florida because the longtime swing state now has a distinctive GOP lean.”
David Mark, Washington Examiner

“Democrats have spent the last decade trying to climb out of the hole they found themselves in the last redistricting. After the 2010 midterm wave gave the GOP control of state governments, Republicans drew a new round of favorable maps in nearly all the key states. That catapulted them into the majority for eight years, until a massive political realignment spurred by Donald Trump’s election unlocked seats for Democrats that were once out of reach...

“Over the decade, Democrats tried to push their way back into the decision-making rooms — or take the map-drawing out of the partisan realm entirely. They now control governors’ mansions in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Kansas. And new independent redistricting commissions could improve their odds in Michigan and Colorado. But they remain completely boxed out of the process in several key Sun Belt states, including Georgia, Texas, Florida and North Carolina, where demographic change could have been to Democrats’ benefit.”
Ally Mutnick, Politico

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