March 8, 2019

Democratic Primary Update

We're officially on Insta! Did I throw on a blazer at 5 am for all you lovely people? You bet I did!

A Morning Consult poll of the 2020 Democratic primary found that “former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) are leading the rest of the Democratic presidential primary field by double digits… Biden, who has yet to announce whether he will enter the 2020 race, leads the pack with 31 percent, the survey found. Coming in a close second is Sanders, with 27 percent support.” The Hill

See past issues

From the Left

The left is divided between supporting centrists and progressives, with some arguing that one can offer a progressive agenda while still appealing to centrists.

“When the televised debates start, in June, all the candidates will be pressed to provide more details about their policies. For now, they can largely get away with expressing generalizations. But the over-all trend is clear, and it is going in a progressive direction.”
John Cassidy, The New Yorker

Yet “a recent Harvard-Harris poll… finds that the percentage of Democrats who think of themselves as ‘Obama Democrats’ (49 percent) or ‘moderate Democrats’ (38 percent) vastly exceeds those who think of themselves as ‘progressive Democrats’ (22 percent) or ‘Democratic socialist’ (13 percent)... Moderate Democrats, not Sanders-endorsed candidates, flipped enough seats to win the House. Moderates, not uber-progressive Democrats, won gubernatorial races in Maine, Kansas and Michigan…

“Biden has the reputation for being the eccentric uncle in the room, but in this case, he must play the role of the wise patriarch, there to remind Democrats that they win when they stick to the center-left candidates and that they achieve progressive aims when they win elections… Frankly, that’s a message that many, if not most, Democrats already understand.”
Jennifer Rubin, Washington Post

Appealing to the middle doesn’t mean abandoning progressive principles… Candidates can have an ambitious progressive agenda while also reaching out to swing voters… Sanders can do so by emphasizing working-class issues that matter to voters across the ideological spectrum. Elizabeth Warren can talk passionately about family values — the real thing, not the fake version. Harris can present herself as an advocate for crime victims, whether the crimes were white-collar or violent.”
David Leonhardt, New York Times

Worth noting: “The ‘Bernie Bro’ — the young, loud, angry white man that came to define Sen. Bernie Sanders’s base of support in 2016 — is looking a lot more diverse these days… 

“Sanders is more popular with people of color than white people, and women like Sanders as much as men do, if not more. He leads every other possible 2020 contender with Latino voters and lags behind only Joe Biden — who hasn’t announced a bid yet — with African-American voters. Sanders’ polling numbers with black voters are double that of Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA)... age [not race] will likely prove Sanders’s biggest challenge.”
Tara Golshan, Vox

Many are also closely watching Kamala Harris. “She continues to run a practically flawless campaign, a hard thing to do for someone who is doing this for the first time. The only potential hurdle for Harris is the nominating calendar; if she doesn't win, place or show in Iowa or New Hampshire, does that make her less viable in her must-win state of South Carolina? If she can make it that far, the map gets friendlier, with the massive treasure trove of California's delegates waiting in early March.”
Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten, CNN

“In theory, there’s no reason why a bad businessman can’t go on to become a good president. But a commander-in-chief whose signature legislative achievement expanded tax loopholes that he himself describes as grossly unfair is pretty much a bad president, by definition.”
Eric Levitz, New York Magazine

From the Right

The right is critical of both the increasingly crowded field, and Biden’s chances.

From the Right

The right is critical of both the increasingly crowded field, and Biden’s chances.

“The Democratic candidates are unique but nearly indistinguishable — they all loathe Trump; at least rhetorically support ‘the Green New Deal,’ some variation of ‘Medicare-for-all,’ and free college education; and denounce proposals for physical border barriers as architectural xenophobia. But maybe the more modern comparison is Netflix — there’s no shortage of options, but after a while they all start to look the same.”
Jim Geraghty, National Review

“A 20-podium stage may prove tough to manage. At minimum, some candidates will try to stand out by making (a) harsh attacks on fellow Democrats, (b) over-the-top assaults on President Trump, and (c) radical proposals to please the party’s hard-left base. Expect a few 2020 hopefuls to hit the trifecta.”
Karl Rove, Wall Street Journal

“The 2020 Democratic primary could resemble the 2016 Republican primary… The large number of candidates may prevent the party from coalescing around a consensus candidate. This is particularly true if Joe Biden, who commands 31 percent support in recent polling, decides not to run. Bernie Sanders, the second place candidate, sits atop a heap of second-tier, mostly unknown candidates, only one of whom, Kamala Harris, currently has support in the double-digits.”
David Thornton, The Resurgent

“People sometimes forget that Biden already tried this twice and failed miserably both times… Right now Biden rides high in polling mainly because of name recognition and sympathy. If he actually hits the campaign trail and returns to his gaffe-mastery and fumbling, the glow will rapidly dissipate and voters will be left with the real Biden — gaffe-prone, handsy with women, and a 50-year denizen of the Beltway.”
Ed Morrissey, Hot Air

Moreover, Biden “will encounter a far different political climate than his last two White House attempts in 1988 and 2008… No longer is it acceptable to say nice things about a politician with different worldviews. The days of Ronald Reagan and Tip O’Neil battling over policy by day and coming together over an adult beverage in the evening are in the rearview mirror… Although the political world may be waiting, the sun has already set on Joe Biden’s White House dreams. His party has moved on and his moment has passed.”
Colin Reed, Fox News

Regarding Sanders, some posit that, “at least when it comes to his implicit treatment of race, Sanders is closer to the truth than his Democratic opponents

“America is less racist now than it ever has been; laws that discriminate on the basis of race are unconstitutional; racial politics has been relegated, for the most part, to mind-reading the supposed motives of political opponents. Sanders implicitly acknowledges that truth when he calls for solutions that do not take into account race as a key factor… And if Democrats don’t recognize this, they’ll be abandoning the possibility of a broad-based coalition that crosses racial lines in favor of a racially polarized one that exacerbates them.”
Ben Shapiro, Daily Wire

Counterpoint: “after the War of 1812, President Madison… enacted the Tariff of 1816 to price British textiles out of competition, so Americans would build the new factories and capture the booming U.S. market. It worked. Tariffs [also] financed Mr. Lincoln’s War. The Tariff of 1890 bears the name of Ohio Congressman and future President William McKinley, who said that a foreign manufacturer ‘has no right or claim to equality with our own… He pays no taxes. He performs no civil duties’… [A tariff’s] purpose is not just to raise revenue but to make a nation economically independent of others, and to bring its citizens to rely upon each other rather than foreign entities.”
Patrick J. Buchanan, The American Conservative

A libertarian's take

“The scoop reflects poorly on Trump, who willfully misled the public for a decade in hopes of fraudulently representing himself as a man with a Midas touch. But he could not have succeeded without the assistance of many Americans, some mercenary, others over-credulous, who helped to spread the deceit and deception, generating countless newspaper articles, magazine stories, and TV segments that misinformed the public about the publicity hound’s record in business. New evidence of his staggering losses in that decade therefore provides an apt occasion to reflect on the media’s complicity in Trump’s brazen deceit and deception… Let [this] be a lesson for today’s tabloids, gossip columnists, over-credulous or mercenary journalists, and reality-television producers.”
Conor Friedersdorf, The Atlantic

On the bright side...

Goat from Hildene elected mayor of Fair Haven.
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