“The Pentagon released a video on Thursday that it said provided evidence a Russian fighter jet clipped the propeller of a U.S. spy drone and caused it to crash into the Black Sea this week, despite Russia's denial. The 40-second-long video was filmed by the MQ-9 Reaper drone as it conducted regular reconnaissance in international airspace two days ago near Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula Moscow forcibly annexed in 2014…

“U.S. officials have accused the Russian jets of acting in an unsafe manner. Russia has denied any collision took place and said the drone went down after making ‘sharp manoeuvres’, having ‘provocatively’ flown close to Russian air space.” Reuters

Both sides are relieved that the two nations are remaining calm but worry about the risk of future escalation:

“The stunning aerial video of a Russian jet buzzing and then apparently hitting a US drone over the Black Sea vividly shows how the war in Ukraine could spin out of control. But if there is anything comforting to take away from the drama, it seems the two nuclear powers are determined to prevent that worst-case scenario of the conflict from happening…

“Clearly, the showdown, which has resulted in angry rhetoric being flung between Washington and Moscow but nothing more, would have been far worse if the US Reaper drone that was downed had been a manned aircraft. The fact a drone was involved has allowed both sides to calibrate their language to avoid an escalation. It has also shown the value of military to military contacts between Russia and the US. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin revealed on Wednesday that he had spoken to his counterpart in Moscow. And Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said he had similar contacts planned.”
Stephen Collinson, CNN

“​​As dramatic as this collision is, U.S. and Russian pilots frequently test each other in the air… In October 2021, before the war in Ukraine started, a pair of Russian Su-30 fighters intercepted two U.S. B-1 bombers and two KC-135 midair refueling tankers over the Black Sea, a show of military muscle that may have been related to a series of NATO military exercises in southern Europe the next week…

“North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) often monitors Russian flights in the Pacific and isn’t shy about escorting Russian pilots away from U.S. shores… In Syria, where the U.S. has roughly 900 troops on the ground and enforces a de-facto no-fly zone east of the Euphrates River, it’s not uncommon for American and Russian pilots to operate in the same airspace…

“While Russia’s conduct was anything but responsible, both sides are responsibly trying to bring the matter to a close. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin quickly got on the phone with his Russian counterpart… [Anatoly] Antonov, Russia’s ambassador in Washington, made it known that his country didn’t want ‘to create a situation where we can face unintended clashes,’ in large measure because the Russian army is in no shape to even consider escalation with the world’s most powerful military.”
Daniel R. DePetris, MSNBC

“But before we brush this off as a nothingburger, I would remind everyone that this is just another example of how our proxy war against Russia in Ukraine could still turn into a hot war at any given moment. Much of that depends on how badly Vladimir Putin has lost control of his senses and the various elements inside his own government. But the man still has a metric ton of nukes at his disposal…

“Much like the situation with China and Taiwan, this could blow up in our faces both literally and figuratively at any moment. If there are American fighter jets flying over the Russian border at some point, even with Ukrainian pilots, that will turn up the temperature even more. Do we have the right people handling this situation from our side? How confident are we that this won’t end up in a world war three scenario? If we don’t address these questions in a serious fashion, we have only ourselves to blame if it all goes to hell in a handbasket.”
Jazz Shaw, Hot Air

“This kind of mishap is a sign of the larger geopolitical tensions undergirding that conflict. Russia is pressing forward with its offensive, still trying to take Ukrainian territory. At the same time, the United States and its allies are providing Kyiv with economic and security aid that make it possible for Ukraine to fight the war, and potentially deter Russia’s advance and reclaim its territory. The West’s deep involvement, and Russia’s uncompromising focus on pushing ahead with its invasion, are ultimately putting two nuclear superpowers at odds…

“The downing of the drone is just another reminder of how the instability in Ukraine perpetually threatens to spill over, from either an apparent blunder or a provocation. In November, an errant missile from a Ukrainian air defense system landed in Poland, killing two. This aircraft collision again shows the dangerous balancing act between Moscow and Washington, and how one miscalculation or ill-timed move carries with it the risk of the conflict spreading beyond Ukraine.”
Jen Kirby, Vox

Other opinions below.