“In both Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, independent voters were found to favor Biden. Clinton lost this group in both states to Trump; and Biden is also outperforming Clinton’s vote share among white voters with and without college degrees. It should be noted, however, that the two data points aren’t directly comparable — while polling data in this case comes from likely voters who may or may not actually go to the polls, 2016 voting data comes from voters who did, in fact, turn out…

“Pollsters found views on the coronavirus pandemic as having a strong relationship to candidate preference — in fact, in its analysis of the survey data, CBS found that views on the pandemic are more strongly associated with voting than views on the economy… Public perception of the president’s pandemic response is highly polarizing — and polls in recent months have shown that the public finds it to be the most important issue facing the nation.”
Zeeshan Aleem, Vox

“[A recent Monmouth poll] shows that about 4 in 10 people have favorable opinions of Trump (40 percent) and Biden (42 percent). That leaves a large chunk of the electorate that doesn’t view either man positively: 22 percent… unlike in 2016, these voters who don’t like either candidate are breaking strongly for Biden. The ‘double-haters’ favor Biden 55 percent to 17 percent. By contrast, Trump in 2016 won voters who disliked both candidates by particularly large margins in the key states: 21 points in Michigan, 25 points in Pennsylvania and 37 points in Wisconsin…

“Another relevant point, though, is that they aren’t threatening to go with a third party. While 12 to 13 percent of voters at this point in 2016 were saying they’d do that, that’s not the case today. It’s as low as 3 to 5 percent… the limited polling we have suggests that voters who don’t love their major-party options aren’t yet venturing beyond them.”
Aaron Blake, Washington Post

“There is little sign of a vast supply of hidden Trump support in the electorate. That said, it is possible, especially at this early juncture, that Trump outperforms his current polling and goes on to win…

“A slightly hopeful sign for Trump backers looking for hidden Trump support is an examination of polls that don't use live interviews. Most of these polls are done online or with an automated voice. An accepted polling practice to see if voters are afraid to give a certain answer they deem to be socially undesirable is to compare the results when a live interviewer is present and when one isn't. Biden's national lead is still 8 points in polls that don't use live interviews at this point. That is a little lower than in polls that do use live interviewers and call cell phones, though that gap has only recently appeared and may just be a statistical artifact.”
Harry Enten, CNN

It’s worth noting that “Although three of the economic factors we use in the model (jobs, spending, manufacturing) have been terrible, a fourth component (income) has been very strong because of government subsidies in the form of the CARES Act, though that could change if stimulus payments lapse. The fifth and sixth components, inflation and the stock market, have also been reasonably favorable… In other words, our forecast thinks it’s far from obvious that the economy will doom Trump, especially if he can tell a story of recovery by November…

“[Moreover] Biden’s current roughly 8-point lead in national polls is really more like a 6-point lead in the tipping point states. And 6-point leads in August are historically not very safe. That margin is perhaps more likely than not to tighten and at the very least, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty about what COVID-19 and the rest the world will look like by November… It’s way too soon to count Trump out.”
Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight