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“The opposition conservatives led by Friedrich Merz won a lackluster victory in Germany’s election Sunday and Alternative for Germany doubled its support in the strongest showing for a far-right party since World War II… Merz has repeatedly ruled out working with AfD, as have other mainstream parties…
“Projections, based on exit polls and partial counting, put support for Merz’s Union bloc [CDU] around 28.5% and the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany, or AfD, about 20.5% — roughly double its result from 2021. They put support for [outgoing chancellor Olaf] Scholz’s Social Democrats [SPD] at just over 16%, far lower than in the last election and below their previous post-war low of 20.5% from 2017. The environmentalist Greens, their remaining partners in the outgoing government, were on about 12%.” AP News
Here’s our recent Spotlight on the German election. The Flip Side
The left is alarmed by the AfD’s strong performance.
“In late 2023, senior party members [of AfD] were caught plotting the violent deportation of millions of people: not only migrants, refugees and asylum seekers but anyone they did not consider to be sufficiently German, including German citizens born in Germany. Fearing a public backlash, these politicians and their wealthy backers were so secretive that they communicated with each other only by letter. They need not have been so worried… The cracks are swiftly spreading throughout the German iceberg.”
Musa Okwonga, The Guardian
“One exit poll indicated that only 12 percent of German workers cast a ballot for the Social Democrats — the country’s traditional workers’ party. Close to 40 percent of workers may have voted for the AfD… But the AfD isn’t the only antiestablishment game in town. The hard Left party proved the surprise of the election with a surge in support: By one estimate, 1 in 4 young German voters cast their ballot for a faction that emerged, in part, from the dissolved Communist Party that once held sway in East Germany.”
Ishaan Tharoor, Washington Post
“Like so many centrist campaigns before, the anti-immigrant campaigns of both centrist parties (CDU/CSU and SPD) did not win over any far-right voters. Nor did they inspire their core voters…
“To do that, they will need their own ideas and priorities, which means looking beyond immigration (which was only the third most important issue for voters, despite the disproportionate media and political attention) and a constructive focus on socioeconomic issues (the most important issue for CDU/CSU and SPD voters), as well as ensuring peace in an increasingly hostile world (the second biggest issue for SPD voters, fourth for CDU/CSU voters). In other words, they should govern for the 80% who voted for liberal democracy rather than for the 20% who voted against it.”
Cas Mudde, The Guardian
“The CDU leader made his reputation in the 1990s as a small-state free marketeer in the Ronald Reagan mould. Yet as chancellor he will inherit a moribund economy in dire need of huge government investment, at a time when the pressure to raise defence spending is also acute…
“The business model that depended on cheap Russian energy and Chinese demand for exports has collapsed. Fixing it may require pushing for constitutional reform to allow the state to borrow and spend more – anathema to many in Mr Merz’s party…
“One in five German voters opted on Sunday for a party that supports the forced repatriation of migrants and has been associated with neo-Nazi dog-whistling. Ominously, the AfD picked up substantial support among the young as well as non-graduates. Beyond the firewall, the AfD leader, Alice Weidel, can position herself as leader of a Trumpian government-in-waiting. The next administration must attempt to restore trust in Germany’s postwar tradition of consensus-building and moderation.”
Editorial Board, The Guardian
The right is skeptical of the prospects for a governing coalition that excludes the AfD.
The right is skeptical of the prospects for a governing coalition that excludes the AfD.
“The latest German government statistics show that just over 16 million people in Germany are first-generation migrants, making up around 18.9% of the entire German population. Naturally, this massive influx has strained social services and fractured cultural cohesion as Germans grapple with integrating millions of foreign nationals. Tragically, a regular drumbeat of terror attacks by Islamist migrants have occurred throughout Germany in recent years.”
Jordan Embree, Daily Signal
“In August, a Syrian refugee stabbed three people to death in Solingen… In December, six were killed and hundreds injured when a Saudi-born man drove his car through a Christmas market in Magdeburg. In January, a 2-year-old baby was stabbed to death by an Afghan refugee in a park… On the Friday night before the election, a 19-year-old Syrian stabbed a Spanish tourist in the neck at the Holocaust Memorial…
“Only the AfD has been willing to talk about these things bluntly. At its convention in January, chancellor candidate Alice Weidel devoted much of her speech to the crimes of migrants. ‘No one ever discusses, my dear friends, who the attackers are.’ Her approach on the campaign trail recalls that of Donald Trump discussing Laken Riley and other victims of migrant crime…
“Together, the [CDU] and the AfD would have enough seats to solve Germany’s immigration problem in short order. The mathematical possibility of such a coalition is now staring the public in the face, even if Merz is resolved not to form it.”
Christopher Caldwell, Free Press
“The CDU campaigned against the SPD’s policies on immigration, welfare, and energy; so any agreement will compromise their drive for reform. To deliver on that right-wing agenda, it would make more sense to go into coalition with the AfD… With the AfD at his neck, Merz will be under pressure to deliver on the economy, migration and reducing state bureaucracy, and improving the energy situation…
“It is therefore not a good sign that Merz is already abandoning his election promise to close the border for people who arrive without papers. Nor will it be in the interest of the country to abandon its transatlanticism and to question NATO in its current form when the military is in such a poor state. A ‘weiter so’, or to carry on the same way, in government will lead to his agenda for reform collapsing, leaving him a failed chancellor.”
Elisabeth Dampier, The Critic
“In Germany, as in the U.S., an ‘extremist’ is someone who thinks the lights should go on when you flip the switch; who doesn’t want energy costs to triple or quadruple; who thinks it desirable for domestic manufacturers to be able to compete in global markets. If our elites continue to define the sensible as ‘extreme’ and the absurdly fanciful as ‘moderate,’ we will see more and more ‘extreme’ results.”
John Hinderaker, Power Line Blog
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