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“The Republican-controlled U.S. House of Representatives on Wednesday cleared the way for a vote later this week on a stopgap funding measure to avert a partial federal government shutdown in two weeks… The White House issued a policy statement backing the resolution, which Democrats have rejected as a partisan Republican bill…
“Late on Wednesday, Democrats unveiled their own legislation to keep the government open through October 31. It would also restore funding to the Medicaid healthcare program for lower-income Americans that was eliminated by Trump's tax cut bill and would permanently extend healthcare tax credits under the Affordable Care Act… Republicans hold a 53-47 seat Senate majority but will need 60 votes to pass a stopgap measure before October 1. That would require support from at least seven Democrats.” Reuters
Here’s our coverage from the narrowly avoided shutdown in March. The Flip Side
The left is divided.
“There have been four more-than-a-day shutdown showdowns in the modern era. The party trying to leverage the shutdown always loses the public opinion battle. True for the Gingrich Republicans in 1995. True for the Ted Cruz Obamacare opponents in 2013. True for the Trump border-wall shutdown in 2019. And true for the Senate Democrats in 2018 (they folded in two days over a weekend, arguably not an actual, technical shutdown)…
“I see some people saying there are no lasting political impacts of shutdowns, and that you may lose public opinion for a bit, but you don’t pay an electoral price. I’m very skeptical. It’s hard, of course, to isolate the variables, but in my view, for example, the 1995 Gingrich shutdown basically destroyed the Republican brand, neutered Gingrich as a national leader, and launched the Clinton turnaround from the 1994 drubbing… No one has yet figured out what the magic explainer sauce is to win a shutdown.”
Matt Glassman, Substack
Others argue, “Recent history suggests that the party that sets a government shutdown in motion will get blamed for it. That has been true under normal circumstances. But these circumstances are not normal. And the American people know it—they’re out marching in the streets every chance they get. Trump isn’t popular. His priorities and performance so far are not popular, except on border control; but other than that, he’s underwater on everything.”
Michael Tomasky, New Republic
“Democrats cannot pretend this is a normal Republican administration. They cannot ignore masked agents in the streets, armed troops in the cities, billions of dollars of money going into the Trump family’s pockets, an administration that spins off several scandals in a week that would have consumed other presidencies for years. If Democrats cannot make an issue out of all that, then they are screwed and so are we.”
Ezra Klein, New York Times
“If Trump’s multiple health cuts persist, they will affect not only those on Medicaid or with ACA-backed policies. Government health care spending and regulation indirectly subsidizes all private health insurance by covering or constraining some costs so that insurance doesn’t have to. Projections are that all policyholders face major premium increases after October 1. In demanding Republican concessions on a broad front of health policy issues as the price of a budget agreement, Democrats will make a huge deal of this risk…
“Either way, Democrats win politically. If Republicans refuse to go along, they take the fall for allowing the government to shut down rather than agreeing to a compromise on issues that most Americans support. And if Republicans do agree to a deal, Democrats will have demonstrated muscle and principle on issues that resonate with most Americans. Even better, Republicans will have been backed into constraining Trump.”
Robert Kuttner, American Prospect
The right urges Republicans not to make concessions, arguing that a shutdown will backfire on Democrats.
The right urges Republicans not to make concessions, arguing that a shutdown will backfire on Democrats.
“What will Democrats want in exchange for keeping the government open? What concession could Trump and Republicans offer that will make Democrats believe they got a good deal? What concession could possibly please a Democratic grassroots that has told their elected leaders to ‘be willing to get shot’ in the name of resisting Trump?…
“Senate Democrats have been absolutely ruthless in their use of blue slips to hold up Trump’s appointments; 149 picks are awaiting Senate confirmation. Does any progressive grassroots activist think Senate Democrats are doing a good job or fighting hard enough? Nah. They’re trapped in this self-serving narrative where Democrats always lose because they’re too nice and conciliatory and Republicans always win because they’re mean and aggressive…
“In the end, what grassroots Democrats really want is for Trump to not be president, and that is not something that any elected Democrat can deliver… Do you envision Trump making significant concessions to ease the pain and suffering of federal government workers? No, I don’t, either. Schumer and the Democrats will have gotten themselves into a high-stakes fight with Trump where one of the party’s key constituencies — government workers — feel the most pain, and it gets worse the longer it drags on.”
Jim Geraghty, National Review
“We all remember this same gambit played out in March and, in the end, Sen. Schumer caved and got enough Democrats to vote with Republicans to avoid a shutdown. But it looks like he learned his lesson from that experience. The Democratic base wants the party to oppose Trump even if it a) accomplishes nothing and b) results in a short term disaster. This time Schumer is going to comply.”
John Sexton, Hot Air
“Democrats refused to accept policies that would have loosened regulations and provided more choice to consumers. That could have given younger individuals the ability to purchase less-expensive coverage tailored to their individual needs. Instead, when Democrats gained power in 2021, they used the Covid emergency to simply make taxpayers pick up the tab for the higher premiums [under Obamacare] by offering more generous subsidies…
“What was supposed to be a temporary measure during the pandemic was extended… If Republicans are unwilling to let the subsidies expire now, there’s no reason to believe that they will ever be allowed to expire — and the Congressional Budget Office estimates that a permanent extension of the subsidies would be $358 billion over a decade… For Republicans, with unified control of Washington, to take legislative action to enshrine a massive and costly expansion of Obamacare would be an immense betrayal of their voters.”
The Editors, National Review
