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“Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson predicted Monday the federal government shutdown may become the longest in history, saying he ‘won’t negotiate’ with Democrats until they hit pause on their health care demands and reopen…
“Johnson thanked President Donald Trump for ensuring military personnel are paid this week, which removed one main pressure point that may have pushed the parties to the negotiating table…
“At its core, the shutdown is a debate over health care policy — particularly the Affordable Care Act subsidies that are expiring for millions of Americans who rely on government aid to purchase their own health insurance policies on the Obamacare exchanges. Democrats demand the subsidies be extended, but Republicans argue the issue can be dealt with later.” AP News
Here’s our previous coverage of the shutdown. The Flip Side
The left expects Republicans to compromise, as polls show voters are blaming them for the shutdown.
“The conventional wisdom was that the party making extra demands on a continuing resolution would be the party that bears the blame for the shutdown. Here, that’s Democrats. And yet, according to a polling average tabulated by the Democratic pollster Adam Carlson, public surveys conducted since the shutdown began show voters blaming Republicans more than Democrats by a 10.5-point margin…
“Instead of vulnerable Democrats being worn down by repeated votes on the CR and eventually voting ‘yea’ (as GOP leaders expected), many vulnerable Republicans are starting to waver on their party’s position. During a conference call yesterday, at least three House Republicans reportedly raised concerns about Johnson’s strategy of staying in recess and urged him to bring the chamber back to Washington.”
Gabe Fleisher, Substack
“Democrats have clearly succeeded, at minimum, in elevating the issue of health care. They have won an unlikely supporter in the ultra-MAGA Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who has called on GOP leaders to extend federal insurance aid, in part because her family is one of millions across the country who would face a steep spike in costs if Congress fails to act…
“Republicans in swing House districts have also pushed to renew the subsidies, fearing an electoral backlash in next year’s midterm elections. And Trump, too, is now paying attention. The president has begun watching the polls, the White House official and an outside ally told us. And he is slowly growing leery of the impact of rising health-care costs, knowing that Republicans tend to be on the losing side of the issue.”
Russell Berman and Jonathan Lemire, The Atlantic
“[Republicans] point out that these health-care tax credits are expensive and that our nation is taking on a historic level of debt as it is. But that didn’t bother the GOP when they passed the largely unfunded OBBBA bill, adding trillions to the deficit…
“I don’t understand why Senate Democrats didn’t let Republicans fall on their own sword. The disappearance of the health-care subsidies would be felt around the midterms. Democrats could say: Look around, this is what a Republican Congress and Administration have done to you. Sure, they passed big tax cuts, but the tariffs and now higher health-care costs have eaten into that and then some. They could use public discontent to get back into power.”
Abby McCloskey, Bloomberg
The right expects Democrats to compromise once federal workers start missing paychecks.
The right expects Democrats to compromise once federal workers start missing paychecks.
“At the heart of Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer’s strategy was the notion that once the shutdown started, Americans – and in particular, Republican constituent groups — would feel the inconvenience of a closed government and pressure the Trump administration and Republican senators and representatives to make concessions to the Democrats…
“Are there disruptions to American life because of the shutdown? Sure, here and there. The Smithsonian museums are closed… But in much [of] America, life goes on with minimal or no noticeable disruption. But you know who is feeling the pain from the shutdown? Federal government workers…
“So we’re left with the big question that was glaringly obvious before the shutdown began: how much financial hardship are federal workers — an overwhelmingly Democratic-voting constituency — willing to endure so that Schumer and Senate Democrats can appear to be fighters against the administration?”
Jim Geraghty, National Review
“The track record for government shutdowns has been grimmer than a roulette wheel on a dodgy casino on a secondary highway. The house, or more accurately the White House, always wins. Presidents control the designation of essential services and the use of funds when Congress refuses to budget, which is why Democrats -- who know this better than the GOP, usually -- have never opted for a shutdown as a bargaining tactic.”
Ed Morrissey, Hot Air
Some argue, “Congress doesn’t face very strong incentives to make sure appropriations are passed on time, since most of the government keeps functioning whether they meet their deadlines or not… Senator Rand Paul (R., Ky.) introduced a bill that would automatically pass funding at 94 percent of the previous year’s level if the appropriations deadline passes. Then, every 90 days, funding would automatically be cut by 1 percent…
“[This] would get lawmakers’ attention very quickly and would make shutdowns vanish… Government shutdowns are only one particularly acute manifestation of the federal government’s larger fiscal problems and broken budget system. They didn’t exist for most of the country’s history, and they have proven ineffective at changing the course of federal spending. Changing the incentives for members of Congress would change the outcomes for the American people.”
Dominic Pino, National Review
