February 5, 2019

INF Treaty

On Saturday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo formally announced that the US was suspending participation in the INF (Intermediate Nuclear Forces) Treaty with Russia. The bilateral treaty was signed in 1987 and banned intermediate range land-based nuclear missiles. US State Department, Arms Control Association

NATO issued a statement in support:

“Following nearly six years of U.S. and Allied engagement with Russia, on 4 December 2018, NATO Allies declared that Russia has developed and fielded a missile system…which violates the INF Treaty…

“Allies regret that Russia, as part of its broader pattern of behaviour, continues to deny its INF Treaty violation, refuses to provide any credible response, and has taken no demonstrable steps toward returning to full and verifiable compliance…

“The United States is taking this action in response to the significant risks to Euro-Atlantic security posed by Russia’s covert testing, production, and fielding of 9M729 ground-launched cruise missile systems. Allies fully support this action.” NATO

See past issues

From the Left

The left argues that despite Russia’s violations, diplomacy aimed at continuing the treaty remains preferable to an all-out arms race.

“True, it's not fair that Russia is violating the treaty. Yes, the U.S. should offer an effective response. But the U.S. under President Trump has made little apparent effort to seek a different kind of solution to the problem. The preferred action among his hawkish advisers has always been to start building more nukes…

“It's important to be reminded of an essential truth about nuclear weapons: They are genocidal-level weaponry. One bomb can destroy a city. We've seen it happen — twice — in Japan. An actual nuclear war would probably end civilization. So any action that increases the number of such weapons — and thus makes their use more likely — isn't simply a bad idea, it's morally wrong.”
The Week

“Think of it like highway speed limits. The limit is 65, and Russia is speeding at 75. If we throw away the speed limit, Russia can now go 125 with no constraints. How is this better?
The Hill

While the Trump administration argues that this is evidence of the President getting tough with Russia, many note that Putin has been “threatening to withdraw from the treaty for more than a decade… Russia in some ways seemed to be goading the United States to cancel it. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the wrong call, mind you… But just because it’s saying Russia did something wrong doesn’t necessarily mean Russia will be chastened or won’t like the outcome.”
Washington Post

Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D-NY) and Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) write that “President Trump could have avoided this by genuinely collaborating with our NATO allies to jointly pressure Russia from the start. Several allies proposed options to address the violation and ensure Russian compliance in an effort to preserve the treaty… [but] the Trump administration blocked NATO discussion regarding the INF treaty and provided only the sparest information throughout the process.”

“The U.S. and Russia are sleepwalking toward a nuclear disaster, and America’s best hope of avoiding catastrophe is reengaging with Russia… Congress must develop a governance agenda—shared by a broad consensus of Democrats and Republicans in the House and Senate, and between Congress and the White House—that successfully challenges the now-prevailing assumption that we have no choice on Russia policy except self-imposed paralysis… Congressional leaders from both parties must help create the political space to steer the world’s nuclear superpowers away from catastrophe.”

“The two issues with which he is most often associated, support for a balanced budget and opposition to free trade, put him at odds with both of our major political parties. An old-fashioned, soft-spoken Southerner, he nevertheless held views on so-called ‘social issues’ that would be to the left of the mainstream of the Republican Party, both then and now. He was a fervent supporter of the Vietnam POW/MIA movement in the late '80s and early '90s, but he was not in any sense a hawk. Never mind 2003. Perot opposed the first war in Iraq in 1990… Perot's death should be mourned by all Americans who regret the fact that it is no longer possible to make reasoned, non-ideological arguments about questions of public import, and by the devolution of our political life into mindless partisan squabbling.”
Matthew Walther, The Week

From the Right

The right supports the decision, arguing that Russia has continued to violate the treaty despite exhaustive diplomatic efforts, and that the strategic threat from China is too great to ignore.

From the Right

The right supports the decision, arguing that Russia has continued to violate the treaty despite exhaustive diplomatic efforts, and that the strategic threat from China is too great to ignore.

“For nearly a decade, the U.S. government tried a number of tactics to get the Russians to meet their treaty obligations. U.S. officials tried negotiations. They tried public shaming. In December, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo persuaded NATO to formally declare Russia as in breach of the treaty. None of it worked… It’s fair to worry about a new nuclear arms race between the U.S., Russia and China. The problem is that the race is already on — and the U.S. is not running.”

"The State Department says Washington has formally raised violations with Russia more than 30 times. Even Barack Obama recognized the problem as part of his belated awakening to the threat posed by Mr. Putin. [But] a last-ditch effort with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization failed… Arms control with adversaries rarely works, and it’s impossible when Washington ignores blatant violations.”
Wall Street Journal

“Russia has flagrantly violated the treaty for at least the past three years and utterly rejected demands to return to compliance. Not only that, Russia also rejected repeated NATO requests to verify [whether it was in compliance]... All NATO's 28 member states agree that Russia is ‘in material breach’ of its obligations under the INF Treaty…  

“If the U.S. did not withdraw, we'd be signaling American weakness to Russian President Vladimir Putin, spurring him to further international outrages. Abiding by our treaty obligations while Russia flouted its own would show the Kremlin it could get away with anything without Washington making a fuss.”
Washington Examiner

“House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may have called on President Trump to exhaust every diplomatic effort to maintain the treaty, but opponents of Pelosi’s position would certainly counter that the United States has been wagging its finger at Russia regarding this treaty for 13 years. It seems unlikely the next six months will change [Russia’s] stance…

“[Meanwhile] China has rapidly become a dominant force in the Pacific–thanks in no small part to its development of ballistic missiles that would have been in direct violation of the INF treaty, had China ever signed it… [The treaty] hinders America’s ability to develop a well-rounded offensive or defensive position in the Pacific.”

“Russian misbehavior aside, this ostensibly bilateral treaty is obsolete in a multilateral world, giving a strategic advantage to other adversaries. China has aggressively expanded its intermediate-range missiles to assert its influence in the Pacific while the U.S. is constrained by the INF, threatening both our posture in that theater and the security of our Pacific allies.”
National Review

“Trump should be overjoyed. Tariffs are taxes paid by Americans on the things Americans buy. The only way China can be paying any of them is if something else, something extra, then happens — like the yuan dropping. This makes all imports into China more expensive for Chinese citizens. That's China paying for Trump's tariffs when the yuan falls. Without this happening, only Americans pay. With the yuan dropping, China pays as well. This is the claim Trump has been making all along, that China's really paying those trade taxes — now they are… Imposing significant export tariffs on a country should mean the value of that currency falls. This is what is happening. Why is Trump complaining about it?
Tim Worstall, Washington Examiner

“NBC and MSNBC embraced Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts in the first debate of Democratic presidential candidates Wednesday night, treating her like the star of the show. The debate led off with Warren, who had a huge popularity advantage from the start… NBC anchor Savannah Guthrie started it off sounding more like Warren’s press secretary. ‘You have many plans – free college, free child care, government health care, cancelation of student debt, new taxes, new regulations, the breakup of major corporations,’ Guthrie said, before teeing up an economy question. Guthrie even used Warren’s plan to break up tech companies as the foundation for a question for Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey… the round-robin final comments also ended with Warren, as Maddow asked her for the ‘final, final statement.’ That let NBC bookend the entire debate with Warren and Warren.”
Dan Gainor, Fox News

President Trump should be happy. As much as Warren is articulate, obviously intelligent, and energetically supported by Democrats, she would also be far easier to defeat than Joe Biden… Considering Trump's economy, the president is well placed to defeat Warren.”
Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner

A libertarian's take

Outside Hong Kong, the silence Is deafening… Some protesters in Hong Kong today are adopting the British Union Jack flag, the American flag and the ‘Star-Spangled Banner’ as symbols, yet that doesn’t seem to have stirred our collective imaginations… Americans are preoccupied with fighting each other over political correctness, gun violence, Trump and the Democratic candidates for president. To be sure, those issues deserve plenty of attention. But they are soaking up far too much emotional energy, distracting attention from the all-important struggles for liberty around the world…

“It’s 2019, and the land of the American Revolution, a country whose presidents gave stirring speeches about liberty and freedom in Berlin during the Cold War, remains in a complacent slumber. It really is time to Make America Great Again — if only we could remember what that means.”
Tyler Cowen, Bloomberg

On the bright side...

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