“The saving graces of the situation, such as they are, are that (a) while there is immense economic hardship, it’s not nearly as severe as you might have expected given Depression-level unemployment and (b) the employment slump has so far been mostly limited to contact-intensive sectors. That is, the crisis hasn’t — yet — spilled over into a crash of the economy as a whole…

“Both these saving graces, however, are the result of emergency aid — the safety net hurriedly put in place in late March, largely at Democrats’ insistence. This safety net alleviated hardship while allowing the unemployed to maintain spending and encouraging businesses to maintain their payrolls. And unless Congress and the White House act, that safety net will be yanked away by August.”
Paul Krugman, New York Times

“The surprisingly rapid rehiring of the furloughed is a positive sign. It suggests that Congress’s Paycheck Protection Program — which subsidizes small businesses that rehire their workers or avoid layoffs, and which kicked into high gear in late April — is doing its job. At the same time, the fact that government subsidies are responsible for much of the rehiring means that many of these recovered jobs remain at risk…

“American restaurants brought 1.4 million workers back on staff in May. But consumer demand for dining out remains far below its pre-pandemic level. If Congress allows PPP funds to phase out this summer, while demand remains depressed, then many workers could ultimately find themselves being furloughed then rehired then permanently fired.”
Eric Levitz, New York Magazine

“These key areas should be at the heart of the next package: a new, calibrated approach to unemployment insurance that extends and beefs up jobless benefits but removes some of the negative work incentives in the hastily devised program Congress launched in the March 27 Cares Act; continued support for small- and medium-sized businesses…  all necessary aid to testing, contact tracing and other public health measures to facilitate people’s return to work and education; and, crucially, substantial support for state and local governments that have hemorrhaged tax revenue even as demands for services have spiked…

“Mr. McConnell wants liability protection for reopening businesses. If limited to companies following science-based best practices that protect workers and customers, that should be something Democrats could accept in return for substantial state and local aid. Positive as the new job numbers are, they are no cause for complacency.”
Editorial Board, Washington Post

“What would happen if Congress simply let the [unemployment benefits] expire? The average recipient would potentially see a 63 percent drop in their income. That’s according to an analysis by Evercore ISI managing director Ernie Tedeschi… Cutting the federal benefit in half to $300 would shrink the incomes of the unemployed by about one-third. Given the number of people who will likely still be out of a job by summer, that would almost certainly deal a significant blow to consumer spending power and slow down the recovery.”
Jordan Weissmann, Slate

“And, of course, there is the question of how the virus-infection rate will evolve as states continue to reopen their economies. So far, there hasn’t been a big second wave, but, earlier this week, Florida, which was one of the first states to relax its restrictions, reported the largest daily increase in cases that it has seen. That may be in part because of an increase in testing, but it is hardly an encouraging sign. According to a tally by the Times, the number of new cases is rising in nineteen states. Even after an encouraging jobs report, the economy remains hostage to the pandemic.”
John Cassidy, New Yorker