“Kazakhstan's president fired two more top security officials on Sunday after the worst unrest in three decades of post-Soviet independence and authorities said the situation was stabilising, with Russian-led troops guarding key facilities… Thousands of people have been detained and public buildings torched during mass anti-government protests in the past week. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev issued shoot-to-kill orders to end unrest he has blamed on bandits and terrorists…

“Demonstrations against a fuel price rise began a week ago before erupting into a wider protest against Tokayev's government and the man he replaced as veteran president, 81-year-old Nursultan Nazarbayev. At Tokayev's invitation, a Russia-led alliance of ex-Soviet states - the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) - sent troops to restore order.” Reuters

Many on both sides call for a response from NATO countries:

“One can wonder just how much Russia played a part in fomenting this unrest to essentially force the Tokayev government to invite Russian troops to station themselves there… What does that mean for Ukraine? In the first blush, it probably should impress US and NATO negotiators that Putin’s ambitions remain unchecked in the former Soviet sphere. If Putin fomented this unrest to force Tokayev into inviting Russians back into Kazakhstan, he may well try similar moves in other neighboring republics. Kazakhstan is the key to Central Asia and dominance of the other former Soviet republics in that region, as even a quick glance at a map reveals. In one fell swoop, Putin now has access to all of the nations north of Iran and Afghanistan…

“In practicality, though, this might end up complicating Ukraine for Putin. The Soviet Union fell apart at least somewhat because of military costs and overextensions. Ukraine has already been a costly adventure for Putin, and any further incursions will force the West to impose onerous economic sanctions, at least for a while. Putin’s still dealing with the Georgian provinces too, plus the ongoing unrest in Belarus. These aren’t wars per se except in Ukraine, but Putin’s getting pretty close to a multifront series of entrenched police actions that could drain his treasury and his political strength. Russia is not tooled for empire in the long run, a lesson Putin apparently never learned, and he risks collapse at some point.”
Ed Morrissey, Hot Air

“Kazakhstan could make an invasion of Ukraine less likely, by diverting Russian military resources and consuming Mr. Putin’s attention. Or the Russian leader could seize on the events in Central Asia as yet another purported Western-instigated destabilization in Russia’s ‘near abroad’ and — as such — a fresh rationale for direct Russian domination of Ukraine…

“No matter how Mr. Putin plays it, the Kazakh crisis provides the Biden administration a reason to double down on the principles it has already articulated ahead of U.S.-Russian negotiations Sunday and Monday in Geneva. Russia’s neighbors have a right to self-determination, and their peoples are entitled to human rights. Moscow has no right to impose its will on Ukraine or any other country through force. Any attempt to do so should be met with a swift, strong and unified Western response.”
Editorial Board, Washington Post

“On the military front, the Biden administration has still not agreed to give or sell Ukraine several items it needs to make the cost of an invasion prohibitively high for Putin. The Ukrainian military needs equipment for electronic warfare, air defense, intelligence support, anti-sniper systems, advanced communications technology and helicopters. In November, the Biden administration sent over two patrol boats…

“On the diplomatic front, Biden officials are warning Moscow of severe economic consequences if it invades. At the same time, Biden is sending a team led by Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman to meet with Russian officials in Geneva on Jan. 10. Jaw-jaw is better than war-war, as Churchill said. But there’s no logic in granting Moscow concessions, essentially rewards for its aggression, at the very moment Putin’s leverage is waning.”
Josh Rogin, Washington Post

“NATO must urgently develop a strategy for the non-NATO former Soviet states. It is insufficient to say we have no treaty obligation to defend them, which ignores strategic reality. Russia’s imperiling of their security will inevitably affect NATO. It is no surprise neutral Finland has unequivocally reaffirmed its sovereign right to decide on NATO membership, and Sweden is increasingly called on to do the same. NATO firmness now can render Mr. Putin’s expansionist aims untenable. But if NATO confines itself to rhetoric about the ‘rules-based international order’ and asking all sides to ‘exercise restraint,’ historians may mark the Kazakh crisis as the point where the Soviet Union rose from its ashes.”
John Bolton, Wall Street Journal

Other opinions below.