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“Denmark believes ‘deliberate actions’ caused big leaks in two natural gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, and seismologists said powerful explosions preceded the leaks. European leaders and experts pointed to possible sabotage amid the energy standoff with Russia provoked by the war in Ukraine. Although filled with gas, neither pipeline is currently supplying it to Europe…
“‘It is the authorities’ clear assessment that these are deliberate actions -– not accidents,’ Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said Tuesday. But she added ‘there is no information indicating who could be behind it.’” AP News
The right is unsure about who is responsible for the sabotage.
“Russia’s coercive diplomacy strategy was built upon these pipelines functioning, allowing Putin to turn off the taps and then turn them back on again when he gets what he wants. The EU — Germany in particular — was already showing signs of being tired of the energy war. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz continuously declines to send weapons his government has already promised to Ukraine…“Arguably, [the] EU’s wartime sanctions on Russia were already weakening. The European Union has already lifted its restrictions on Russian fertilizer coming into the EU, and Russia was asking them to lift the restrictions on Russian fertilizer being shipped to developing nations.”
Michael Brendan Dougherty, National Review
“There is no good reason at all for Russia to have sabotaged these pipelines. Why would the Russians render inoperable the source of their economic leverage over Europe? I mean, maybe they did do it, but it's hard to understand why, given that if they wanted to cut off gas to Europe, they have the power without destroying their own equipment…
“[Meanwhile] One could certainly see why sabotaging Nord Stream benefits the US. We didn't want Europe to get Nord Stream in the first place, because it would make Europe dependent on Russian gas… That doesn't mean Washington is responsible for this sabotage, but there's a lot more reason for Washington to have blown the pipelines up than for Russia.”
Rod Dreher, American Conservative
Others note, “It does seem peculiar to think Russia would have blown up their own pipeline, but it is not inconceivable that a faction of Russia’s military is trying to sabotage Putin as a prelude for ousting him, or that Putin sees it as a kind of ‘Cortez burning his ships’ moment to indicate that he is all-in on Ukraine and a wider confrontation with the West. Freezing more Germans this winter is just a bonus, but if Putin is behind it the possibility that he might yet use nuclear weapons in Ukraine just got assigned a lower discount rate.”
Steven Hayward, Power Line Blog
“The best argument for the Kremlin’s ordering this operation is that destroying Russian-owned infrastructure in international waters wouldn’t be an attack on NATO countries or NATO assets — with all the fallout that might entail — but could still be seen as a capability demonstration and a threat to Western energy infrastructure, such as to the major pipeline systems originating in Norway that provide much of the U.K.’s and Western Europe’s remaining gas supplies…
“This could also be the Kremlin ‘burning the ships’: a message to the Russian public and oligarchy that Russia must win in Ukraine.‘There will be no return to the antebellum economic environment,’ is Putin’s message. ‘So stop pining for it.’”
Mark Antonio Wright, National Review
The left argues that it’s likely Russia is responsible for the sabotage.
The left argues that it’s likely Russia is responsible for the sabotage.
“Der Spiegel reported, and the New York Times confirmed, that the C.I.A. had given some non-specific warnings to a few countries, including Germany, that the pipeline could be a target…
“The Russians denied responsibility, and have tried to pin this as a false-flag operation by the U.S. or Ukraine. But European analysts suggest Russians might have had a reason to do it themselves — even though they are the owners of the pipelines. An adviser to Ukrainian President Volodomir Zelenskyy called it a ‘terrorist attack’ by Russia that was meant to destabilize the European Union.”
Kevin T. Dugan, New York Magazine
“There are a few hints that point to the Kremlin. For one, Russia likely has the technical capabilities and equipment to pull off such an act, including potentially by divers or undersea drones…“Russia may be trying to make clear that Europe won’t be getting gas from Russia — not this winter, not in the near future, and maybe not ever again. ‘It’s a signal that Russia is saying, ‘Fine, you don’t want our energy, find it somewhere else,’’ [professor Emily Holland] said. It would be Russia’s final break in the relationship with Europe…
“The leaks added to global uncertainty around access to energy and its cost. European countries have stored up natural gas and bought replacement supplies at a premium on the global market. But many European industries relied on cheap gas from Russia, and high costs are forcing industry cutbacks and closures with still-unfolding economic consequences. Countries and cities are trying to reduce demand by cooling swimming pools and turning off traffic lights. Households across the continent face higher energy bills, even as some fear gas shortages.”
Jen Kirby, Vox
“Russia is running out of options in Ukraine and striking what it can, so critical infrastructure is not a stretch. Plus, the leaks were reported as a separate pipeline to bring Norwegian gas to Poland was inaugurated — the latest boost to European energy independence. Conceivably, then, this is a warning from Moscow. That would at least explain why Gazprom PJSC took the opportunity to caution that the last remaining route to western Europe, through Ukraine, was at risk…
“All of this is also disproportionately damaging to Russia — particularly when it comes to its pivot to the East. Moscow has spent years convincing the world it’s a dependable supplier. For Beijing, few things matter more than the reliability of key commodity supply. And yet, caught in a corner, the Kremlin may have jettisoned predictability to make a point. Given that the entire Nord Stream incident makes it even more unlikely that gas flows to Europe will meaningfully resume, increasing the need for China to step in, that seems foolish.”
Clara Ferreira Marques, Bloomberg
