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“President Donald Trump said on Friday he would impose hefty new tariffs of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada and 10% on imports from China, and nothing could be done by the three countries to forestall them. Trump did, however, reference a potential carve out for oil from Canada, saying that rate would be 10% versus the 25% planned for other goods from the United States' northern neighbor…
“Trump has been threatening the tariffs for weeks, saying they would be imposed on Feb. 1 and remain in place until the countries did more to stem the flow of both migrants and fentanyl over the U.S. border. Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office as he was signing executive orders, Trump said he understood the duties could result in higher costs being passed on to consumers and acknowledged his actions may cause disruptions in the short term.” Reuters
The left is critical of the tariffs, arguing that they will increase prices.
“Most of the tariff gets passed through into higher consumer prices. Perhaps the clearest example of this was when Trump imposed one of his first tariffs back in 2018 on imported washing machines. The price of both imported and domestic washing machines subsequently increased, by about $86 per unit according to one estimate. Even the price of dryers, which weren’t tariffed but are often sold with washers, also rose!…
“Trump claims that the exporter pays the tariff, by lowering the price they charge to the importer. But a moment’s thought shows this argument to be both empirically unfounded and, well, weird. The whole point of Trump’s tariffs is to rebuild domestic manufacturing by making imports more expensive. But if the exporter eats the cost, then the U.S. price doesn’t change, and MAGA’s mission is decidedly not accomplished!…
“A widely cited study from the Peterson Institute predicts that Trump’s most sweeping plans would cost households an average of $2,600. My own estimate is that 25% tariffs on all imports out of Canada and Mexico and 10% on China would cost the average household $1,500-$2,000.”
Jared Bernstein, MSNBC
“If the Trump Administration is delivering anything to the working class so far, it’s overwhelming household costs: Come for the $16 eggs at the grocery store, stay for the eye-popping utility bills… 25 percent tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will raise energy costs in dramatic ways that ordinary Americans will feel…
“The erratic nature of Trump’s announcement… is in character. Just a few days ago, millions lost access to their Medicaid because of a freeze on all federal funding that has since been walked back. This is a chaotic government and will continue to be so. Historically, arguments for localized energy sources have implied that it is too risky to depend on the global market, because of political instability in the Middle East and elsewhere. Now it’s clear that the political [instability] is here at home.”
Liza Featherstone, New Republic
“As usual with Trump’s tariffs, there’s the possibility that he’ll remove them once the targeted countries comply with some demand or make some symbolic concession. But it’s not yet clear what Trump actually wants from Canada and Mexico…
“It’s possible that if Mexico agrees to crack down on illegal border-crossing, and Mexico and Canada both agree to take some sort of action to crack down on fentanyl, Trump will lift the tariffs. These actions might be substantive, or they might be purely symbolic, like China’s concessions in Trump’s first term (which of course it reneged on)…
“But even in that best-case scenario, the uncertainty generated by this policy will be considerable. American businesses that rely on imports from Canada, Mexico, and other U.S. allies — including many manufacturers — won’t be able to make long-term plans about sourcing. And American businesses who rely on exports to Canada, Mexico, and other U.S. allies will have to worry about future trade wars and future retaliations. Uncertainty is bad for business and generally bad for the economy.”
Noah Smith, Noahpinion
The right is divided.
The right is divided.
“Mr. Trump should go right ahead with his proposal for a universal tariff of up to 20 percent. A duty this sweeping can of course raise major revenue and help control the federal budget deficit. But it’s also needed to prevent China from evading tariffs on its own products by shipping them through third countries through various subterfuges. Meanwhile, their impact on consumers can be eased greatly by exempting products that the United States simply doesn’t turn out. Among the most notable: tropical fruit, coffee, and cocoa…
“Energy products should get carve-outs, too… It’s vital to implement and administer all of these tariffs with street smarts and agility. For example, if China-based producers still see some advantage in reaching U.S. customers via third countries, any country that’s caught colluding should be hit with punitive tariffs in the 60 percent neighborhood…
“[Mexico and Canada] send fully 30 and 25 percent of their entire economic output to the United States each year. The absolute numbers for China are much lower, but Bloomberg has just reported that ‘the US continues to be the largest single destination for Chinese manufacturing’—and China’s steadily weakening domestic economy has made exports the main driver of China’s growth so far… As many Wall Streeters like to say about investing in stocks, TINA—There is No Alternative to the United States.”
Alan Tonelson, American Conservative
“Americans need to remember that this is how this president negotiates. And there’s good reason to think it’ll work… Trump ran a near-identical play on Colombia’s lefty prez Gustavo Petro — take back the illegal migrants from your country or face tariffs. Petro, after a public tantrum, folded like a cheap suit… The new tariffs may vanish as well if these other nations prove compliant, which would also almost certainly mean restrictions on migrant flow…
“Remember too that in July 2026 the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (Trump’s first-term revise of Bill Clinton’s NAFTA) is up for renewal. The tariff move sure looks like it’s also battlespace prep for the high-stakes haggle ahead of that decision…
“To be clear, the tariff threat — a centerpiece of Trump’s foreign policy — is high risk. It could [go] south in the end. But ‘peace through strength’ is not merely a military concept; it’s true in global trade as well.”
Editorial Board, New York Post
Others argue, “Take the U.S. auto industry, which is really a North American industry because supply chains in the three countries are highly integrated. In 2024 Canada supplied almost 13% of U.S. imports of auto parts and Mexico nearly 42%… Thousands of good-paying auto jobs in Texas, Ohio, Illinois and Michigan owe their competitiveness to this ecosystem, relying heavily on suppliers in Mexico and Canada…
“None of this is supposed to happen under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that Mr. Trump negotiated and signed in his first term. The U.S. willingness to ignore its treaty obligations, even with friends, won’t make other countries eager to do deals. Maybe Mr. Trump will claim victory and pull back if he wins some token concessions. But if a North American trade war persists, it will qualify as one of the dumbest in history.”
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
