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“Republican Matt Van Epps won a nationally watched special election in Tennessee for a U.S. House seat Tuesday, maintaining his party’s grip on the conservative district with help from President Donald Trump. But the comparatively slim margin of victory fueled Democratic hopes for next year’s midterms…
“A military veteran and former state general services commissioner from Nashville, Van Epps defeated Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn to represent the 7th Congressional District. With 99% of votes counted, Van Epps’ lead was around 9 percentage points. The previous Republican who held the seat won by 21 points last year, and Trump carried the district by 22 points.” AP News
The left is encouraged by the election results.
“Democrats would have needed a perfect storm to win a special election in a district like this. Behn is a steadfast progressive with a history of intemperate online comments tailor-made for 30-second television ads and Fox News monologues. By the end of the race, Trump was attacking her for allegedly hating both Christianity and country music. Although Behn sang Dolly Parton’s ‘9 to 5’ in a rhinestone-studded denim suit before delivering her concession speech, that was probably not a sufficient or a timely rebuttal…
“In contrast, Van Epps, a first-time candidate, didn’t make any unforced errors. A dark-haired, clean-cut military veteran who put a helicopter on all of his yard signs to emphasize his service, he was the platonic ideal of a generic Republican. He embraced Trump sufficiently to appeal to the base but did not overemphasize the president in TV ads, lest it antagonize those swing voters who might be unhappy with the cost of living… A moral victory is worth zero votes in the House, but it may well be a sign that the party is in for a good year in 2026.”
Ben Jacobs, Slate
“This is a sign that even staunch Republicans are disappointed with the way the country’s going. The federal government is in disarray, the economy is in flux and the president is spending his time in office pardoning drug traffickers and deflecting from his connections to the late convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Trump clearly doesn’t know that the average American is hurting – or what wins elections for either party these days. On Dec. 2, he told Cabinet members that ‘the word affordability is a con job by the Democrats.’”
Sara Pequeño, USA Today
“Did Republican voters sit out in significant numbers? Will they turn out next year for candidates other than Trump? Did independents and moderate Republicans cross over to protest the president and his policies with the hope of a Republican course correction? Or are voters ready to register a more permanent shift toward Democrats?…
“The special election turnout also demonstrated something that Republicans in other reliably red states are starting to worry about: their gerrymandering exploits may be backfiring. By attempting to fold pockets of Democrats into Republican districts, they may have sabotaged their own members in a tough year for their party.”
Mary Ellen Klas, Bloomberg
“It’s important to note that Trump had a very light presence in the race. In past special elections like this one, the GOP nominee would have had Trump in every ad, in every communication from the campaign. Not so for Van Epps. Trump didn’t visit the district once. On the day before the election, he called in to a rally that Speaker Mike Johnson was headlining, and later did a tele-rally. What does it mean? That even among Republican base voters, Trump may not be the rallying force he once was.”
Chris Cillizza, Daily Beast
The right is concerned about the election results.
The right is concerned about the election results.
“Over the past few years, the population of Nashville has grown by roughly 100 citizens a day, about 30,000 souls a year, and many are coming from blue, high-tax, high-crime states. Sadly, many seem willing to bring their failed politics with them…
“Democrats understand these demographic changes in red states, and many will now argue that Behn’s success shows that the growth strategy here is to play to the younger, far-left voters, not the Joe Manchin-type, blue-dog Democrats in their 60s…
“Republicans need to take these warnings seriously. Say what you will about the tenets of socialism, but at least it's an ethos. Right now, nobody seems to know quite what Trumpism is, other than Trump himself. That has to change. Over the next year, before the midterm, and the following two before the next presidential election, Trumpian populism needs to get bigger than Trump. In fact, Trump may need to set not just the priorities of his administration, but of the future of the Grand Old Party.”
David Marcus, Fox News
“It is easy to dismiss special elections as being, well, ‘special.’ Low turnout, ideologically motivated electorate, quirky candidate, etc. — the list of excuses people will offer for waving them aside is long. But this was not a low-turnout race. In the 2022 midterms — the nearest relevant comparison, as opposed to 2024 — exactly 180,822 votes were cast. In this off-off-year special election, 179,899 votes have been tallied thus far.”
Jeffrey Blehar, National Review
“For all the environmental advantages that buoyed Behn, she was also a terrible candidate… It was revealed that she said she ‘hates’ the city she sought to represent in Congress, Nashville. ‘Our problem with racism in this state is wild and untamed,’ Behn wrote in a similarly notorious 2020 op-ed, and she defended ‘burning down a police station’ as ‘justified’ at the height of the moral panic that swept the nation after George Floyd’s arrest-related killing…
“Behn’s policy positions on a range of subjects lean far to the left of the median voter in her district, but her party nominated her anyway… It is almost a certainty that Democratic primary voters will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in at least a handful of races, some of which could be key swing seats with the potential to make or break Democratic majorities.”
Noah Rothman, National Review
“The GOP needs to embrace Operation Kooktoberfest and do to Democrats what Democrats did to the GOP in 2022. The GOP needs to amplify the craziest and nuttiest progressives in each Democrat primary and make it appear that person is the one the GOP fears the most. Help shape the Democratic primary and push it as far left as possible because, as much as voters do not like Donald Trump, they positively hate the far left.”
Erick-Woods Erickson, Substack
Meet Kenon Walker: the Duck Master of the Peabody Hotel.
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