May 16, 2025

Trump and the Middle East

President Donald Trump kicked off his trip to the Gulf on Tuesday with a surprise announcement that the United States will lift long-standing sanctions on Syria, and a $600 billion commitment from Saudi Arabia to invest in the U.S. The U.S. agreed to sell Saudi Arabia an arms package worth nearly $142 billion, according to the White House which called it the largest ‘defense cooperation agreement’ Washington has ever done.” Reuters

“Even before the trip began, Israel was on edge over U.S. talks with its arch-enemy Iran and over Trump's decision to stop bombing the Houthis in Yemen, regardless of the Iranian-backed group's determination to keep up its own missile strikes against Israel…

“Israeli officials were then forced to stand by and watch as the United States negotiated to reach a deal with the Palestinian militant group Hamas to bring home Edan Alexander, the last surviving American hostage in Gaza. Since then, they have had to listen as Trump declared an end to sanctions on Syria and called for a normalization of relations with the new government in Damascus.” Reuters

Both sides generally support relaxing sanctions on Syria:

“Let’s be honest about what sanctions achieved. They didn’t force [Bashar al-] Assad from power. They didn’t curb Russian or Iranian interference. And they didn’t stop Syria’s descent into economic ruin, warlordism, and mass migration… Assad’s government collapsed in December, but that collapse didn’t end the war. It created a vacuum. The central state collapsed. Armed factions scrambled for power…

“Into that chaos stepped al-Sharaa—then a powerful commander in Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate. Al-Sharaa forged an interim government backed by a coalition of former rebel forces. In March, that government adopted a five-year roadmap toward new elections and national unification. It’s not a Western-style democracy. It’s not even clear it will last. But it is the most serious attempt since Syria’s civil war began in 2011 to knit Syria back together…

“The choice isn’t between perfect partners and permanent sanctions. It’s between shaping what emerges, or allowing others—Russia, Iran, or fragmented militias—to define Syria’s future for us… Trump made the right decision.”

Brian O’Neill, The Contrarian

“There is still plenty of sectarian violence in the post-Assad Syria, but Sharaa’s interim government has made more than cosmetic efforts to ingratiate itself with Syria’s minorities — including its persecuted Christians and even the Alawite sect, from which the Assad clan hailed. His Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militants and their Turkish sponsors have been reliably hostile toward the Iranian assets that took root in Syria under Assad’s patronage…

“And there have been confidence-building measures between the U.S. and the Syrian regime, including in Damascus’s acquiescence to a U.S. demand that the regime arrest two senior members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad…

“If Damascus is willing to execute America’s security priorities in the region in exchange for commercial investment and cultural ties to the West, Washington should welcome and guide that transition. Insofar as geopolitics is a zero-sum game, taking Syria off the board for Russia and Iran and adding it to the collection of Western assets would be a triumph. At the very least, it’s worth a shot. Trump deserves credit for taking it.”

Noah Rothman, National Review

Other opinions below.

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From the Left

“In Riyadh, Trump will face intense pressure to end Israel’s blockade [in Gaza]… Trump knows he cannot afford to ignore the views of the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, and his Gulf counterparts on Gaza, Syria and Yemen… Trump needs them as allies in his trade and tariff feud with China. Gulf diplomats hosted the Ukraine-Russia peace talks he personally promoted…

“[Trump] is desperate to keep oil prices low. And he covets multibillion dollar Middle East investment deals and arms sales… The expanding power and influence of the Gulf states is an inescapable fact of 21st-century geopolitical and economic life. Yet when discussing vital questions of Middle East peace and security, how extraordinary that a bunch of entitled, unelected autocrats is showing a US president how to do the right thing.”

Simon Tisdall, The Guardian

“While in Dubai, [Eric Trump] announced that MGX, a UAE-based investment fund, would invest $2 billion in crypto exchange Binance using a ‘stablecoin’ created by the Trumps’ crypto venture, World Liberty Financial. The deal could net the Trump family hundreds of millions…

“MGX isn’t just any UAE-based investment fund. It’s chaired by Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, the UAE’s national security adviser and brother of the Emirates’ ruler…

“All of the countries involved in the deals announced by Eric Trump—Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.—are key US partners in the region… And Donald Trump, in his role as US president, will be meeting with the leaders of each of these nations this week… Trump’s conflicts of interest in the Middle East are staggering.”

Russ Choma, Mother Jones

From the Right

“After months of mixed signals from Washington over what Donald Trump’s foreign policy will mean for the Middle East, the president has revealed his hand. In his speech Tuesday in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Trump explained that America is no longer trying to remake the world in its image…

“America is no longer going to hector its allies about whether women have the right to drive or whether dissidents disappear into dark prisons. Trump’s message to America’s allies in the Middle East is: You do you… As Trump sees it, how a government is organized internally—whether it’s a liberal democratic republic or a repressive police state—is irrelevant to America’s national interests. What matters is how that state behaves.”

Eli Lake, Free Press

“Trump’s personalistic approach to world affairs means he has a direct interest in preventing foreign leaders from getting an upper hand on him. While past presidents like Biden grumbled in private about Netanyahu’s intransigence even while publicly backing him, Trump is inclined to want his power over Netanyahu—and by extension, America’s power over Israel—to be on full display…

“If Trump can end the bloodshed in Gaza, he’ll not only improve America’s reputation in Muslim countries, but boost his own image in western Europe, where he is deeply unpopular. Back in America, liberal journalists and progressive politicos have noticed Trump’s tough treatment of Netanyahu. ‘It’s really something to watch Trump handle Netanyahu more effectively than alleged foreign policy expert Joe Biden did,’ wrote Matt Duss, former advisor to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), on X.”

Andrew Day, American Conservative