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“President Donald Trump demoted his longtime campaign manager on Wednesday, a move aimed at shoring up his re-election bid as he trails Democratic candidate Joe Biden in opinion polls less than four months before the Nov. 3 vote… In a Facebook post, Trump said campaign manager Brad Parscale would be replaced by Bill Stepien, who has been the deputy campaign manager.” Reuters
Biden is ahead of Trump nationally by an average of 8.6% as of Thursday night. RealClearPolitics
Many on both sides agree that Biden is a stronger opponent than Hillary Clinton was:
“Unfortunately for Trump, there's one massive factor that puts a ceiling on his ability to change the fundamental dynamics of the election: namely, that Joe Biden is not Hillary Clinton… People like and trust Biden in a way they never did with Clinton. In 2016, more voters trusted Trump, with just 37% of those polled by Quinnipiac saying they believed Clinton to be more honest. Today, Biden leads Trump by 15 points on the question of whether voters believe the candidates to be honest…
“[Trump] was on pace for a (close) reelection just five months ago, and if the economy rebounds, a more tempered Trump could reclaim his incumbency advantage once more. But a massive factor in Trump's poor performance is beyond his control. Voters' loathing of Clinton played an enormous role in 2016. Say what you will about Biden, he just doesn't inspire that kind of reaction.”
Tiana Lowe, Washington Examiner
“Polls consistently show that Trump’s supporters are more excited to vote for him than presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s supporters are to vote for him… [But] while Biden voters may not be all that excited about voting for Biden, they’re very enthusiastic about voting against Trump. And that gives Biden a pretty strong edge, because Trump supporters don’t despise Biden the way they despised Hillary Clinton in 2016…
“Registered voters with negative opinions of both Trump and Biden preferred Biden to Trump by a whopping 23-point margin in the polling Nationscape conducted in June. They also rated Biden less negatively overall, with only 33 percent of this group saying they had a very unfavorable opinion of Biden compared to 62 percent who said the same of Trump… These results, especially when combined with recent political science research on the power of negative partisanship, suggest that the public’s stronger dislike of Trump is probably the more consequential enthusiasm gap in 2020.”
Michael Tesler, FiveThirtyEight
Other opinions below.