“The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.” Washington Post
Many on both sides support continued aid, including F-16 fighters, for Ukraine:
“The U.S. has committed approximately $80 billion in aid to Ukraine since Russia began its war in February 2022. About 35% of this aid has been in the form of financial or humanitarian grants. The remainder has been military aid. This is a lot of money, and the U.S. is already subsumed by a massive national debt. We should debate whether it is in the national interest to provide continued aid at this level…
“My view is that the aid is broadly appropriate. I have two caveats, however. First, considering the grave consequences for the U.S. were Taiwan to be conquered by communist China, I believe certain military aid should be prioritized for Taiwan (although that nation needs to get far more serious about its own defense). Second, I believe the U.S. should be putting far greater pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky's government to ensure U.S. aid is not stolen by corrupt elements. Zelensky should also show less ingratitude over aid that Ukraine has received.”
Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner
“Armchair critics of the slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive seem to have conjured a superhuman Ukraine, capable of overturning any basic military precepts, based on the collapse of Russian positions in Kyiv’s lightning advances on Kharkiv and Kherson last year. They now expect an army that was almost written off 18 months ago, to now be able to achieve a feat no NATO army would even attempt…
“NATO armies would not consider tackling the minefields and defenses along the southern Zaporizhzhia front without high-end armor, anti-demining equipment, air superiority and a well-trained force. But somehow the West has afforded itself the luxury of impatience with Ukraine not being able to take an army of often-mobilized young men, rush-trained on new equipment, and overrun Russian-held territory by fall… F-16 jets can’t come soon enough for Ukraine.”
Nick Paton Walsh, CNN
Other opinions below.
“Mr. Biden failed to deter Vladimir Putin’s invasion, no doubt in part owing to the signal sent by the U.S. retreat from Afghanistan. His Administration thought Kyiv would fall within days. And Mr. Biden has been slow to deliver the weapons Ukraine needs, even long after it became clear that Kyiv could hold its own and perhaps drive Russia to the Sea of Azov…
“A failed counteroffensive, and an extended military stalemate that stretches into 2024, risks eroding U.S. public support as GOP voters become more restive amid Mr. Trump’s campaign assault. Mr. Biden has never given a serious speech making the case for the U.S. security interest in Ukraine and how he hopes the war will end…
“Perhaps the President figures ambiguity will give him more flexibility to negotiate a settlement. But if Mr. Biden wants Congress to pass his aid package, he has to make a better case than he has and spend the political capital like the Commander in Chief.”
Editorial Board, Wall Street Journal
“Some experts now expect the war to last years. ‘Only a few more years’ will be a hard sell for Joe Biden in November 2024. It’s a hard sell now, actually. Earlier this month, CNN found 55 percent of Americans oppose further congressional funding for Ukraine, while 51 percent say the U.S. has done enough. Among Republicans, those numbers are 71 and 59 percent, respectively; among independents, 55 and 56 percent…
“By next spring, with the election months away, I suspect Biden and his team will lean heavily on Zelensky in private to propose terms for a settlement. They’ll remind him that he’s unlikely to have a stronger hand with Putin if and when Trump returns to the presidency. The best bargain he’s going to get from Russia is one he negotiates with Joe Biden as his wingman, so he’d better negotiate quickly.”
Nick Catoggio, The Dispatch
“The average American has no idea where America is sending arms or troops… Remember the La David Johnson fiasco, when a huge fuss was made over Donald Trump reportedly calling a slain soldier’s family and telling a grieving widow, ‘He knew what he was signing up for, but I guess it hurts anyway’? An amazing part of that story was multiple U.S. Senators admitting unawareness that American troops were fighting in Niger, where Johnson was killed…
“Since the collapse of communism, the U.S. has pursued engagements all over the world… [A former analyst for the RAND corporation recently offered] a blistering history of how the United States constructed a radical new foreign policy posture after communism’s fall, obliterating ‘normal diplomacy among great powers’ and replacing it with rapid NATO expansion in all directions… Thirty years after Bill Clinton ditched the ‘Peace Dividend,’ we seem to be in conflict everywhere, with no end in sight.”
Matt Taibbi, Substack
Ohers note, “Those who claim that NATO expansion provoked adverse Russian behavior typically present it as a process initiated and executed by Washington, with the existing and candidate members being passive subjects. This construct ignores the fact that the candidate states of Eastern Europe, many of which had experienced decades or centuries of Russian political domination and even forced Russification, had solid historical reasons for desiring NATO membership…
“This year's protracted obstruction by Turkey of NATO membership for Finland and Sweden shows that member states are hardly U.S. vassals; had there not been unanimity within NATO, the expansion would not have proceeded… The invasion of Ukraine is but one component of an extraordinarily complex global crisis that requires the U.S. and its allies to rally global support.”
Mike Lofgren, Salon