August 23, 2023

Ukraine

The U.S. intelligence community assesses that Ukraine’s counteroffensive will fail to reach the key southeastern city of Melitopol, people familiar with the classified forecast told The Washington Post, a finding that, should it prove correct, would mean Kyiv won’t fulfill its principal objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s push.” Washington Post

Many on both sides support continued aid, including F-16 fighters, for Ukraine:

“The U.S. has committed approximately $80 billion in aid to Ukraine since Russia began its war in February 2022. About 35% of this aid has been in the form of financial or humanitarian grants. The remainder has been military aid. This is a lot of money, and the U.S. is already subsumed by a massive national debt. We should debate whether it is in the national interest to provide continued aid at this level…

My view is that the aid is broadly appropriate. I have two caveats, however. First, considering the grave consequences for the U.S. were Taiwan to be conquered by communist China, I believe certain military aid should be prioritized for Taiwan (although that nation needs to get far more serious about its own defense). Second, I believe the U.S. should be putting far greater pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky's government to ensure U.S. aid is not stolen by corrupt elements. Zelensky should also show less ingratitude over aid that Ukraine has received.”

Tom Rogan, Washington Examiner

“Armchair critics of the slow pace of Ukraine’s counteroffensive seem to have conjured a superhuman Ukraine, capable of overturning any basic military precepts, based on the collapse of Russian positions in Kyiv’s lightning advances on Kharkiv and Kherson last year. They now expect an army that was almost written off 18 months ago, to now be able to achieve a feat no NATO army would even attempt…

“NATO armies would not consider tackling the minefields and defenses along the southern Zaporizhzhia front without high-end armor, anti-demining equipment, air superiority and a well-trained force. But somehow the West has afforded itself the luxury of impatience with Ukraine not being able to take an army of often-mobilized young men, rush-trained on new equipment, and overrun Russian-held territory by fall… F-16 jets can’t come soon enough for Ukraine.”

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN

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