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Last Thursday, “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky dialed into the [emergency EU summit] via teleconference with a bracing appeal that left some of the world-weary politicians with watery eyes. In just five minutes, Zelensky — speaking from the battlefield of Kyiv — pleaded with European leaders… Before ending the video call, Zelensky told the gathering matter-of-factly that it might be the last time they saw him alive… Zelensky’s personal appeal overwhelmed the resistance from European leaders to imposing measures that could drive the Russian economy into a state of near collapse…
“The actions culminated on Saturday, when the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and the European Union announced they would bar several major Russian banks from the global financial messaging system known as SWIFT, crack down on Russian oligarchs, and prevent the Russian Central Bank from bailing out the domestic economy.” Washington Post
“As far-reaching Western sanctions on Russian banks and other institutions took hold, the ruble plummeted… In Moscow, people lined up to withdraw cash as the sanctions threatened to drive up prices and reduce the standard of living for millions of ordinary Russians… Russian forces shelled Ukraine’s second-largest city on Monday, rocking a residential neighborhood, and closed in on the capital, Kyiv, in a 40-mile convoy of hundreds of tanks and other vehicles, as talks aimed at stopping the fighting yielded only an agreement to keep talking.” AP News
Both sides agree that the invasion has thus far backfired on Putin and praise Zelensky’s efforts:
“Putin isn’t the first brutal dictator to make himself an international pariah. As far as I can tell, however, he’s the first to do so while presiding over an economy deeply dependent on international commerce — and with a political elite accustomed, more or less literally, to treating Western democracies as their playground. For Putin’s Russia isn’t a hermetic tyranny like North Korea or, for that matter, the old Soviet Union. Its standard of living is sustained by large imports of manufactured goods, mostly paid for via exports of oil and natural gas…
“This leaves Russia’s economy highly vulnerable to sanctions that might disrupt this trade, a reality reflected in Monday’s sharp plunge in the value of the ruble despite a huge increase in domestic interest rates and draconian attempts to limit capital flight… Putin may well take Kyiv. But even if he does, he will have made himself weaker, not stronger. Russia now stands revealed as a Potemkin superpower, with far less real strength than meets the eye.”
Paul Krugman, New York Times
“Even Trump’s critics were forced to admit the truth of his critique in 2017 when he complained that too many members of NATO, Germany most notably, fail to pull their weight by spending the recommended two percent of GDP on defense. Our friend in Moscow has now forced our allies to see the light, with Scholz pledging a few days ago to spend more than two percent going forward. It’s essential that Europe takes greater responsibility for its own defense against Russia as the U.S. inevitably pivots to the east to contain a rising China. Thanks to Putin’s historic blunder, that’s now — finally — in motion.”
Allahpundit, Hot Air
Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis writes, “Zelenskiy has been using every communication skill he learned as a performer to great effect… In addition to his words, his physical presence has been key — appearing in the media from locations in Kyiv to demonstrate that he isn’t fleeing. Immediately after the invasion, he shed his business suits in favor of hunting-type gear, a powerful symbolic shift. It’s an effective approach, although he must be careful to balance the reward in terms of morale with the risk of being captured or killed. The West should be providing him the highest-grade intelligence, cyber overwatch, high-tech communications gear and reliable ground transport to be able to stay on social media and ahead of the Russians…
“Zelenskiy has also proved to be a quick learner of the logistics of war. NATO and the EU can best help by providing a tsunami of combat materiel. We should have sent far more over the past few years, but there is still time to get additional Javelin anti-armor and Stinger anti-air missiles into the hands of the Ukrainians. They will also need massive quantities of small- and medium-caliber ammunition, communications equipment, cold-weather tactical gear, medical supplies, fuel and military rations… Zelenskiy is turning out to be a courageous, tenacious and innovative war leader of his battered nation. I would gladly go into combat at his side. But the West needs to do more to create the conditions for his unlikely resistance effort to succeed.”
James Stavridis, Bloomberg
Other opinions below.
“Biden should follow Scholz’s lead and propose a similarly large increase for U.S. defense budgets. U.S. gross domestic product is roughly $23 trillion; a onetime 3 percent of GDP special defense appropriation would add about $700 billion. That would buy a lot of newer planes and ships and allow for the military modernization and expansion, especially of the Navy, that we need to meet our security needs…
“The United States remains the only democratic superpower. In addition to providing a counterweight to Russia, it has defense obligations in Asia to meet and faces a rising authoritarian power in China with territorial designs of its own… Biden wanted to be the next FDR. The world will rest more comfortably if he decides to become the next Truman instead.”
Henry Olsen, Washington Post
Some argue, “[If Putin] continues to prosecute his self-chosen war in Ukraine, the United Nations ought to use its Article 42 powers to do a collective military intervention against Russian forces. It can and should do so after implementing Ukraine’s suggestion to evict Russia from the U.N. Security Council, because the U.N. never officially authorized Russia to take the former Soviet Union’s permanent Security Council seat. Furthermore, as Russia is brazenly violating the U.N. Charter, it could and should be booted from the whole assembly, regardless. Without a veto from Russia, the U.N.’s collective security provisions can be activated and a no-fly zone enforced…
“As a collective action of the entire world against Russia’s aggression, it would leave Russia in a bind, unable to blame, or retaliate against, just one or two nations for taking arms against it… Yes, a caged Putin might again threaten nuclear war. But what can he do? Nuke the entire world? Surely, Putin's generals would evict him in a coup before carrying out such orders from him. The United Nations was founded, and its collective-security provisions created, exactly for circumstances such as this one.”
Quin Hillyer, Washington Examiner
Others counter, “‘Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake,’ Napoleon Bonaparte advised. Mr. Putin appears to be in the middle of a major strategic miscalculation. His overconfident assessment of his own power has been matched by his underestimation of Ukrainian resolve…
“Biden will surely face political pressure to ‘do more’ to help Ukraine. The administration just approved hundreds of millions of dollars in immediate arms sales to Ukraine, whose military has mounted an impressively stiff resistance. But doing more isn’t necessarily doing better. The president has wisely pledged not to send combat troops to Ukraine… Clearly, the president understands the potentially catastrophic risks of a direct American military confrontation with Russia. He also seems to appreciate that even absent direct U.S. military involvement, Russia will face severe consequences for its actions.”
Mark Hannah, Wall Street Journal
“The next step for the United States is for Congress to move quickly on a bipartisan aid plan when it returns this week. The White House is requesting $6 billion, though independent estimates suggest Ukraine’s military and humanitarian needs call for around $10 billion…
“As they deliberate, lawmakers should consider these data from a new Washington Post-ABC News poll: Sixty-seven percent of American adults favor sanctions against Russia. More than half of adults said they would support sanctions even if it meant higher energy prices. Between the resistance of the Ukrainians and the unity of the West, Mr. Putin appears baffled. Congress should add to his troubles.”
Editorial Board, Washington Post
“On Thursday, the first day of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the West paid Russia about $500 million. That’s the average daily value of purchases of Russian energy by the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States… The obvious solution is to stop paying for Russian gas altogether — or to pay into an escrow account until Russia withdraws its forces from Ukraine. The Russian reaction presumably would be to shut off deliveries, but Europe claims to have enough stocks to get through this winter, so this is partly about the costs of preparing for next winter…
“Those costs are likely to be high… But policymakers have dealt with bigger issues, including the COVID-19 crisis in 2020-21 and the global financial crisis in 2008… Russia should [also] be suspended immediately from the International Monetary Fund. That would send a clear signal to financial and currency markets that Russia will not be able to draw on its reserves held in the form of Special Drawing Rights. To be sure, these measures would amount to a radical departure from postwar norms. But Putin tore up those norms on Thursday.”
Simon Johnson, Los Angeles Times
“Looking back, the central flaw in the West’s strategy was the fear that any preemptive actions—whether providing more high-powered weaponry to Ukraine or imposing economic sanctions on Russia’s power brokers sooner—would be used by Putin as justification to attack Ukraine. The West also tried to avoid enacting economic sanctions that would disrupt the flow of the world’s energy supplies and their own economies. It’s now clear that the Russian leader intended to invade, whatever the West did. ‘He’s gone off the rails,’ the former Defense Secretary and C.I.A. director Robert Gates said on Sunday, on CNN…
“Although Putin has always been a calculated risktaker during his twenty-two years in power, ‘this behavior is different.’ As Western powers mobilize to aid Ukraine and confront Putin more aggressively, there is an underlying sense of regret. And the protests around the world prove that there are already questions being asked, with many others certain to follow, about why far more was not done in advance to prepare Ukraine for war or to stop Russia’s deranged leader.”
Robin Wright, New Yorker
