May 2, 2025

Ukraine Minerals Deal

Ukraine and the U.S. on Wednesday signed a deal heavily promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump that will give the United States preferential access to new Ukrainian minerals deals and fund investment in Ukraine's reconstruction.” Reuters

“On Wednesday, the Trump administration informed Congress of its intention to green-light the export of defense-related products to Ukraine through direct commercial sales (DCS) of $50 million or more.” Kyiv Post

Both sides are cautiously optimistic about the deal:

“The agreement covers only Ukraine’s future mineral wealth… The U.S. gets rights to those untapped resources, possibly worth trillions of dollars, helping to offset America’s reliance on China for minerals. Any profits, if realized, would also count as repayment for future U.S. military assistance to Kyiv. Ukraine did not receive the security guarantees it was seeking. But the new deal makes clear to Russia that the United States is committed to a ‘long-term strategic alignment’ between Washington and Kyiv…

“The new agreement appears to give something to each side. The United States gains some financial stake for its continued support. And Ukraine gets a long-term economic partnership with the United States, which it hopes will be enough to deter future Russian aggression.”

Editorial Board, Washington Post

“This puts Russia in a tougher position, as the agreement was intended to do. Trump now has invested in Ukrainian sovereignty as a key American commercial interest, a signal that makes clear to Putin that we will not back away from Ukraine, even if we aren't going to militarize the relationship any further. The Russians already suggested today that they aren't ready for a deal, not without knowing its ‘nuances’…

“Well, the ‘nuance’ here is that Putin's attempt to frustrate Trump enough to dump Ukraine didn't work. That doesn't mean that Putin will immediately order a cease-fire, but it does mean that Trump and the EU are aligned again on support for Ukraine and guarantees for its sovereignty with whatever borders get settled in talks. The ball is now in Moscow's court.”

Ed Morrissey, Hot Air

Other opinions below.

See past issues

From the Left

“The neocolonial terms of exploitation in previously leaked US drafts that Trump clearly expected Zelenskiy to sign on the spot — because the American president exploded in anger when that didn’t happen — are no longer there. The US won’t have legal jurisdiction over the joint fund to be created…

“Nor will US companies get right of first refusal on all projects, a provision that would have clashed with Ukraine’s plans for joining the European Union… There’s also no mention of back payments to cover previous US war aid to date (which was given in the form of grants not to be repaid), nor any ridiculous figure as to what that would require (at one point Trump talked about $350 billion, or even $500 billion, four times the actual total). Ukrainian infrastructure is no longer to be included… Maybe Zelenskiy Should Be Writing the Art of the Deal.”

Marc Champion, Bloomberg

Others argue, “The agreement’s significance is limited. The presence of American citizens and businesses is not inherently protective: they were already in Ukraine when Vladimir Putin’s tanks rolled across the border in 2022…

“Touting this agreement as evidence of his deal‑making prowess could encourage Mr Trump to feel a degree of political investment in the crisis, and perhaps therefore make Mr Putin step a little more carefully. But the Russian president may think he should seize more territory while he can. Mr Trump’s peace-making efforts to date have amounted to attempting to strong-arm Ukraine into accepting Moscow’s terms because he thinks that any deal looks better than none.”

Editorial Board, The Guardian

From the Right

“$50 million in defense aid is a small amount in the context of the war, now in its third year. But it does represent a sign that the cutoff of assistance to Ukraine, feared by internationalists and Russia hawks and desired by isolationists, isn’t happening yet… Keep going, Mr. President. You gave Vladimir Putin every chance and a lot more to end the conflict and bring peace, and Putin never budged. It’s time to increase pressure on the Russians.”

Jim Geraghty, National Review

“[Trump] knows — as everyone knows — that the only off-ramp for the war lies in a Korean War-style armistice. But Russia still refuses to come to the table… In order to reach an end to the war, therefore, the Trump administration ought to fully consider just what Russia wants at this point…

“And the answer happens to be surprisingly simple: Russia wants either Ukraine conquered or a puppet government in place or a clear pathway to conquering Ukraine in the future. We know this because Russia repeatedly says it… So, if the true Russian goal is the destruction or subjugation of Ukraine, how could Russia be brought to the table?…

“Only through the ‘peace through strength’ policy Trump pursued during his first term. Only a Russia that believes that the West will refuse to surrender Ukraine will be pressured into an armistice. Trump seems ready to consider that possibility; he's now acknowledging publicly that Putin seems to be slow-playing him. But the answer won't be more sanctions. It will be a recognition that Ukraine's sovereignty can only be guaranteed by force of arms.”

Ben Shapiro, Creators

On the bright side...