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As of Wednesday night, former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 6.7 percentage points in Wisconsin and 4.2 percentage points in Michigan. RealClearPolitics
Read our recent coverage of Pennsylvania here. The Flip Side
Many on both sides agree that Trump’s polling in the Midwest is disappointing:
“Biden’s 6.7-point lead is almost identical to Hillary Clinton’s 6.5-point lead over Trump in the final RCP average of Wisconsin polls in 2016 — right before Trump surprised the world by winning Wisconsin by 0.7 points… But the Biden 2020 campaign still looks stronger than the Clinton 2016 campaign in Wisconsin because Biden’s overall level of support is higher and there are fewer undecided voters…
“Another reason to think the Wisconsin polling average will be more reliable in 2020 than 2016 is that we are getting a lot more data. In 2016, there were two public polls of Wisconsin conducted in all of September. In 2020, there are already nine public polls of Wisconsin conducted entirely or partly in September. Biden was at or above 50 percent in seven of the nine polls… Clinton never topped 50 percent in RCP’s Wisconsin polling average.”
John McCormack, National Review
“If we look at how much Biden’s odds have changed in states where both he and Trump have at least a 1 in 10 shot of winning since we launched the forecast on Aug. 12, Biden has improved his chances in 17 of 20 states. And in some cases, Biden’s improvement has been considerable — +15 percentage points in Minnesota, +12 points in Arizona and +10 points in Wisconsin, for instance. By comparison, Trump’s odds have really only improved in Florida…
“Still, a Morning Consult survey released yesterday might buoy the Trump campaign’s hopes of breaking through in Minnesota, as it put Biden’s lead at only 4 points… Trump very much remains in contention, but he is an underdog for reelection at this point.”
Geoffrey Skelley, FiveThirtyEight
Many on both sides are also skeptical of Biden’s field strategy in Michigan:
“Biden’s field operation in this all-important state is being run through the Michigan Democratic Party’s One Campaign, which is also not doing physical canvassing or events at the moment… there are no young volunteers in Biden shirts pounding the pavement for their candidate, no clusters of posters marking the Biden field offices in various precincts, few bumper stickers on the highways. There are more Biden signs than Hillary Clinton had in 2016, locals say, but not enough to give the impression of an enthusiastic presidential campaign in a crucial swing state. When Biden visited Michigan last week, only a handful of supporters came to see him; his campaign didn’t disclose the location of the event in advance, even to the local Democratic county chair, because it didn’t want to attract a crowd…
“Biden’s Michigan team says its campaign is significantly bigger than Clinton’s and may be the largest program in the state’s history. The campaign says it reached out to 1.4 million voters during the Democratic convention and the weekend that followed, with 500 digital-organizing events and 10,000 volunteer signups. In the week before Labor Day, the campaign sent 500,000 texts to Michigan voters… This strategy makes sense during a global pandemic… But the juxtaposition of Trump’s loud and proud campaign and Biden’s invisible digital operation makes some Democrats increasingly anxious… ‘Some of the same people that said everything was okay four years ago are the same people saying everything’s okay now.’”
Charlotte Alter, Time
“Four years ago, Hillary Clinton lost Michigan by largely taking it for granted, even though union leaders sent up warning flares that the race was getting much tighter than their data analysis showed. But at least the Clinton campaign had some infrastructure in the former blue-wall state, and had a ground game of sorts. Four years later, Joe Biden doesn’t have anything on the ground in Michigan — and people are starting to notice…
“This is perhaps the biggest reason to take this season’s polls with an even bigger grain of salt than usual. The polls we get are based on likely-voter turnout models that (a) don’t account for COVID-19 behavior changes, and (b) don’t account for the massive imbalance in personal-contact campaigning. Both could have a big impact, but it’s almost certain that (b) will have an impact on voter turnout.”
Ed Morrissey, Hot Air
Other opinions below.
“I don’t think voters [in Wisconsin] prefer Biden because they think he’d be ‘tougher’ on crime than Trump… but rather because they think he’s more likely to ease rather than inflame racial and cultural tensions that may be contributing to the violence. He leads Trump by 19 points on which candidate will unite the country and by 17 points on who’ll do more to reduce racial inequality. If Trump were offering an iron fist against rioters *and* an extended hand to peaceful anti-racism protesters, he might own this issue. All he’s really offering is the fist, though. Works for MAGA types, not so much for the rest of the electorate…
“There’s an X factor here that may help explain Trump’s varying fortunes in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Florida: Namely, COVID-19. Florida’s epidemic has been in decline over the past month after a summer spike and Trump’s polling has improved. Pennsylvania’s daily case count has been more or less flat for months while Trump has inched closer. Wisconsin’s experience is different. They’ve recorded some of their highest daily case counts since the pandemic began over the past few weeks.”
Allahpundit, Hot Air
Yet “The enthusiasm in Janesville [Wisconsin at Vice President Mike Pence’s rally on Monday] was reminiscent of the palpable Trump support in Kenosha during the president’s visit, following the shooting of Jacob Blake and the ensuing riots that left businesses burned and the town in shambles. While many on the left who talked to The Federalist said they aren’t fans of Biden but merely want to get Trump out of the White House, the president’s supporters are excited to vote for him. As MAGA cheesehead-wearing Danell Vincenti told The Federalist in Kenosha, ‘We love our president, and he’s got our support 100 percent.’…
“For many Trump and Pence supporters, ‘four more years,’ isn’t just a rallying cry. They’re convinced the president will win re-election.”
Kylee Zempel, The Federalist
“Decades of Wall Street–friendly compromises and concessions on the part of the party that was supposed to represent the working class provide a part of the explanation for why Kenosha County, for the first time in decades, backed a Republican for president in 2016… Biden must acknowledge that recent Democratic administrations have not delivered enough for Kenosha or for cities like it. He must accept that the United States needs an industrial policy that focuses attention on communities that have been left behind—and that addressing racial inequity must be central to that policy.”
John Nichols, The Nation
“In the [Democratic working class] communities we visited, some of their most beloved Democratic politicians have a Trumpian sensibility… One is Ottumwa’s Jerry Parker… during one local primary meeting, he threatened to take a conflict with a Bernie Sanders supporter ‘outside.’ Similarly, Mayor Joe Polisena of Johnston is popular even though he is a self-described political ‘street fighter.’ Mr. Polisena doesn’t hesitate to verbally rough up citizens who openly criticize his rule…
“As Mr. Polisena told us, if you are high-minded, it can suggest ‘weakness,’ and ‘then they’ll just roll over you.’ Mr. Biden has often followed this code of honor when campaigning in their world. In New Hampton, Iowa, when a man accused Mr. Biden of being too old and abusing his political power, Mr. Biden shot back, ‘You’re a damned liar.’ He also challenged him to a push-up contest. Critics in the media reported on the exchange as another Biden gaffe. But that’s not how many people there in New Hampton read it: They gave Mr. Biden a spirited round of applause…
“Observers should consider the possibility that Mr. Biden’s next ‘gaffe’ is not necessarily another sign of his clumsiness — it just might be evidence of his cultural finesse.”
Stephanie Muravchik and Jon A. Shields, New York Times
